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KTA Macro Weekly Wrap 15/9/17

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 Louise Griffin, Relationship Development Manager at Knightsbridge Trading Academy

 Friday, September 15, 2017

GBP is the strongest currency of the week, up around 3.67% and 4.07% versus the USD and EUR, respectively. GBP got a boost by a strong CPI print and a hawkish BoE, gains accelerated on Friday as BoE dove Vlieghe also turned hawkish stating that if data continues the way it has over the recent months we may see a rate hike "as early as in the coming months". This was in a stark contrast to the market pricing in a rate hike by mid-2018. JPY remains the weakest G10 currency this week as both EU and US yields rallied helped improved risk sentiments and improved inflation expectations. USD index weakened despite an above expected CPI on Thursday. Though US CPI has boosted expectations of a Fed rate hike in December (60%) there is limited scope for further pricing in of a December rate hike as we are still quite far away from the end of the year. Also, the FOMC next week will keep USD bulls in check as it is unlikely we will see a big shift in the policy statement. Elsewhere, EUR remained supported by hawkish comments from ECB speakers including Lautenschlaeger who stated; “it is time to take a decision on scaling back our bond purchases at the beginning of next year. In the commodity currencies, AUD, CAD, and NZD remained strong with oil rallying on high demand prospects. NZD was moving back and forth in New Zealand election polls but in our view, election results will have less of an impact on RBNZ policy than global developments will. Hence, the bigger upside risk to NZD comes from improving risk appetite and conservative pricing of the next RBNZ rate hike. Also, New Zealand Q2 GDP on Wednesday may also add to the choppy moves. For AUD and CAD, we have BoC’s Lane on Monday and RBA’s Lowe on Thursday; in our view, AUD has more chance of a further upside because RBA has not been hawkish so far. In terms of Scandies, the Riksbank's Floden and Norges Bank’s Olsen will be speaking on Wednesday and Friday respectively.


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