Search
× Search
Sunday, December 22, 2024

Archived Discussions

Recent member discussions

The Algorithmic Traders' Association prides itself on providing a forum for the publication and dissemination of its members' white papers, research, reflections, works in progress, and other contributions. Please Note that archive searches and some of our members' publications are reserved for members only, so please log in or sign up to gain the most from our members' contributions.

Following the Math of the Stock Trading Game

photo

 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Monday, August 14, 2017

After publishing my latest book: From Zero-Beta to Alpha Generation, Reshaping a Stock Trading Strategy, a few questioned the presented stock trading strategy as if it might be unrealistic. That we could not reach those kinds of numbers. When all this stock trading strategy did was follow the math of the game. With everything provided in that book, I think anyone could rebuild something similar or better. The benefit: it would now be their own code. A strategy design they would understand well enough to maybe give them the confidence needed to apply it. Or find in it trading procedures that they could apply elsewhere.


Print

4 comments on article "Following the Math of the Stock Trading Game"

photo

 Ludo Ludo, Ing info chez NA

 Wednesday, August 16, 2017



thanks Guy i need to found 5 or 10M$ :)


photo

 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Wednesday, August 16, 2017



Ludo, yes.

You want to play a compounding game. Mix everything any way you want. Your starting and end points are locked in the following equation: F(t) = F(0)∙(1 + r_m + α)^t. Even with above average trading skills (α), F(0) matters. 10 or 100 times F(0) will give you 10 or 100 times the end result.

Dig out your spreadsheet and run a few numbers. You will find 3 of the numbers matter in that equation, and they all depend on you. The fourth one is almost given away as the market average return (r_m) which you can obtain simply by buying low-cost index funds. No offense, but even dogs and monkeys have won stock trading competitions.

What matters is what you can bring to the table starting with F(0), then how much alpha you can generate (α), and for how long (t). You will find that the last doubling time is the most expensive since it has the same value as all the years that preceded it.

On the other hand, anyone can play for peanuts. However, they should also expect peanuts.


photo

 private private,

 Thursday, August 17, 2017



Guy, I wan to getting to in to Stock Trade can you guide on this. please suggest me right approach


photo

 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Thursday, August 17, 2017



@Hanumantharao, that is a difficult question to answer. I don't know where to start. It depends on where you are at, your already accumulated skills, and where you want to go.

Stocks as an investment is a relatively easy problem to solve and not that time-consuming.

Trading in stocks is much more complex. As a strategy designer, it is your job to take all the complexity and make it simpler by developing software routines and procedures that could extract some alpha from this chaotic swarm of quasi-random price movements.

Because you will be looking at short term price movements, your average profit per trade will not be that high. And as such you will be faced with F(t) = F(0) + n∙APPT, where APPT is the net average profit per trade. Because you want to trade in stocks, you changed the investment problem to a bean counting one, where n the number of trades matters.

Any trading strategy that can give you APPT > 0, will require you give it a large n.

Please login or register to post comments.

TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
Terms Of UsePrivacy StatementCopyright 2018 Algorithmic Traders Association