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Things ain’t gonna be the same again...US GDP in line with Macro Thoughts’? non-consensus forecast

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 KEITH GRINDLAY, Global Macro Strategist, Senior Fund Manager US AM, Head of F I & Forex Derivatives Trading and Sales Teams, G10 & EM

 Sunday, January 29, 2017

This week, my forecast of sub-2% was realised, when Q4 2016 was announced at 1.9%, significantly lower than the one-off 2.35% for Q3, averaging just 2% for the past two years. Had the FOMC raised rates in September, as Macro Thoughts felt at the time they should, markets would have been prepared for an increase in January, and this would have taken the pressure off the Fed acting during the rest of the year...


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