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Stock Trading Strategy Math I

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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Thursday, January 19, 2017

In my last article, A Stock Trading Strategy Signature, I presented a model for a trading strategy, an equation. It is derived from the payoff matrix, another expression used to resume a portfolio's entire trading activity over its lifetime. This model has interesting properties. It too resumes, in just three numbers, the total outcome of any stock trading strategy:


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8 comments on article "Stock Trading Strategy Math I"

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 Saba Arian, Chief Investment Officer, IVEX Capital

 Monday, January 23, 2017



Hello Guy - Thanks for sharing this formula. What I like about it, and it reinforces a concept we've adopted in our practice, is that it highlights the importance of number of occurrences. In other words, once you've come up with a profitable strategy then you should be able to execute it with high frequency. This allows for a strategy that (1) risks small amounts (invested capital) relative to your portfolio size and (2) produces relatively small gains to end up with impressive results over a long period of time. We believe that a sustainable trading practice does not rely on outsized wins (swing for the fences) but it is built on small but repeatable wins. Thanks again!


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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Monday, January 23, 2017



Saba, yes.

The formula does emphasis the importance of the number of trades for anyone wishing to trade short term. It gives how many trades will be needed to reach one's objectives: (A(t) – A(0)) / (u∙PT) = n. For someone having aspiration A(t) after (t) years, starting with available capital A(0), with a known long term edge PT, they can know how many trades their trading strategy has to do to reach its goal.


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 Manuel Ochoa, Global Trend Capital

 Monday, January 23, 2017



Now if only the PT value wouldn't change or degrade this game would be easy.


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 Saba Arian, Chief Investment Officer, IVEX Capital

 Monday, January 23, 2017



Hi Manuel - For this to work one needs to put in a lot of work into PT. My point is that do not be seduced by few large wins as they introduce volatility. Unfortunately this industry tends to celebrate stories of those making large bets at opportune times and making fortunes. Get the volatility in your PT to as low as you can and start from there.


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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Monday, January 23, 2017



Manual, the net average profit percent per trade (PT) tends to a limit as n, the number of trades increases. You have total profits generated: n∙u∙PT. Therefore, your average profit per trade is: u∙PT. Since u is a constant (your bet size); then, PT, will tend to a limit on large n.

Nonetheless, since PT could degrade with time, you might need to take compensating measures which are easy to implement. However, the formula does say: you need an edge: PT>0, however small it is to win!


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 private private,

 Thursday, January 26, 2017



As usual.. after your article I noticed that you are the best


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 Shalom K Rabinovich, Privet Equity, Investments, Money Management

 Thursday, January 26, 2017



Mendel Mark Zelickman


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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Thursday, January 26, 2017



Hi Aurel, thanks for the kind words.

Hope you also read the second part: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/1813979/1813979-6228662073585340419

It has far-reaching implications.

All my best.

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