I will be glad to answer any questions about this model, below are insights.

*Entry Methods include 3 styles: Enter on Open, Enter on Close, Enter on Limit.

Conditions include 2 events: Moving average is greater or less than previous value, Oscillator is cycling in opposite direction of trend, signaling entry methods.

*Exit Methods include 4 styles: Exit on Open, Exit on Close, Exit on Limit and Exit on turn of Moving Average.

Conditions include 1 events: While in a trade the oscillator is cycling in direct of trend direction and has now reversed signaling exit methods.

*Money Management: The model does not employ any money management, however it could be employed as a catastrophic stop and would have little effect on the equity curve if loosely fit.

How can you have such linear conditions, there was once this supposedly great trader called Mark B. Fisher, owner of the largest clearing house in NYMEX, published this booked called The Logical Trader - ACD system, a winner against the followers of his system's losers, so now when you follow such systems, ask your selves if research supersede or preceded. Research is everything, losers follow others systems.

This model was developed about 10 years ago and has never been published until today when I opened the chart and saw they it had actually held up really well and that I was never going to use it myself. So I figured I would share it and as noted now enough people use the system the market will absorb it.

I have published systems in the past that made really good money for years and were freely and openly disclosed they also after a couple of years were destroyed by overuse. However good models will last a couple of years a least has been my experience. Nature of the beast evolve or die.

amazing data points

Ram Ji Dubey I am most positive that you can easily duplicate these results in many types of markets. If you have any questions let me know, I will help you.

You say you do not have predetermined risk management framework in place. Am afraid this is suicidal. Your may want to bear in mind that you can be in TOTAL control of risk but market is in total control of returns. If you don't do what's under your control, you will surely be wiped out. Matter of time only.

Dr Elton Babameto Actually consider that if there were a catastrophic move it would be in the direction opposite of investors positions right. So this model exploits that catastrophic move by entering just after momentum is detected back in the direction that most investors position would be. Therefore I would say that it has logic built into it contrary of the popular position and that is in fact some great money management in itself.

Also I did state that you could envelope the model with catastrophic stops and it would not impact the profits much at all because of the counter trend entry again it is exploiting that very event. Every large institution I have ever programmed for or trader for employs no hard risk controls everything is dynamic. Hard risk stops are just like a target to be hit by a marksman and they will be when trading large commercial size.

Using a 2.82 % risk per unit traded it has insignificant impact to the equity curve. I just optimized the system using money management fixed on a per contract basis. So you could amend to logic of the system to include this if you wish.

I do think this demonstrates how well the model takes advantage of counter trend entries with great consistency. I sincerely hope that someone can use this as an example or inspiration. The model and it's logic are something completely unique and original that I have given at no cost to anyone. m

this can be make big difference if entry is done once momentum is broken, i think adx and linear regression can help to point into right place for entry. currently working on indian indices Nifty/banknifty, once my hands are free i will definetly code this and test it over 1yr or 2.

Dr Elton Babameto's concern is right :) it's flying against wind

I use something similar and my counter trend indicator is wrong over 90% of the time - i.e. betting against it is right over 90% of the time 😊

The graph represents simulated results or real? Because in the post you wrote that the model has more than 20+ years of positive trades and in one of the comments that it was developed 10 years ago.

Marcin Pękalski 20 consecutive years without even a losing month. 10 consecutive years without a losing month with real time data and no parameter changes from the original built date. As I stated from the beginning built for a fund that never used it.

looks great, I believe some instruments are easier to exploit with a countertrend strategy but you give very few informations to discuss about, for example, which market or instruments did you test it? Which is the timeframe? Which is the avg trade? which is the total net profit and drawdown over 20 yrs?

SP 500 stock index which as you noted is pretty impossible to counter trend right. It has been tested on other stock indexes both cash and futures. The timeframe is end of day data for easy maintenance. The average trade is 2.85 times the loss which is also the profit factor.

Drawdown without money management at all is less than 4%. Anyone can easily build this model and verify its performance and or modify it to your desire. The concept of identifying the trend first and entering counter to the trend is very hard psychologically I admit , but it works very well.

what your annualized return for this system?

Ying Cui about thirty percent cash and futures being in the market thirty three percent of the time.

Thanks for sharing Mark. I'd like to code if for you in you new platform :)

Hi! Mark,

Thanks for sharing. And i couldn't agree less with you. I use a similar trend tracking corrective entry system and it works superbly in catching the end of the correctives. The system is tradable in any time frame viz. daily/weekly/monthly/quarterly and yearly time frames.

We have docked the system with a tight risk management process to keep the trader and the trade alive.

Cheers.

Hi! Mark, the system would be good for quiet and sideways market?

Edmond Yip Out of about 20 flat periods I checked there were only a couple that come out with less capital. You could implement a turn filter for the trend portion of the system but it would probably lessen the profits but smooth out the equity curve. That is always the trade off, I could have made the model with a pretty strait equity curve but would not held up.

Sometimes you have to have a loose fit to gain dependability at the cost of some risk but at the gain of profitability. Many people optimize for maximum profits, I look for clusters of many parameters working like in the 75% range of test results.

Right , would it also work for a day trade program using the same method?

Have been deploying the same strategy in the production for 5+years; the performance is not that good as you thought. The problem is that the profit margin is very low that you can't afford any failure in filling . You can try it in production and you know what I mean : )

Edmond Yip Yes I have the same concept running on a day trading system. It does employ fixed risk per trade, and some diffrent types of exits including some reversal routines. I will probably provide all the framework for it soon.

Brian Wong You are very correct the struggle with this method is keeping you per trade size as large as possible. I have found that any delay in entry will hurt performance so you have to anticipate the trade with the oscillator crossing immediately triggering an entry.

Some times that entry is perfect sometimes it's early that is the problem with oscillators but by leveraging into the trade with multiple contracts at better prices helps the overall profit per trade average improve allot. Takes some faith in your statistical work admittedly.

is this method intended specifically for US markets? or will it crossover to less liquid emerging markets. I for example am in South Africa.

Thierry Moreau It performed better on the futures really well.

Erkan Sağlam I answered this question 3d reply up from here.

Hi Mark... do you have a demo version in order to test it? mq4

Jesus Acedo i will be glad to answer any questions about the logic just drop me a message. It is just as simple as described above however and very robust.