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Has dollar got its MOJO back??? How it will affect Commodities in 2017???

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 Ali Muhammad Lakdawala, Procurement : Edible Oils & Fats @ ITC Ltd

 Tuesday, January 3, 2017

This paper is in continuation to paper published & presented in 2016 titled " The WAR is ON "Currency War": Its impact on Commodities in 2016". Wherein, paper had discussed How countries used & still using Monetary Tools as one of the war tactics in battlefield which is not pre-defined so as to protect its self interest in turn creating ripple effects and threatening / derailing global growth. Current on-going scenario is no different as exchange rate volatility has become more prominent now than ever before. “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”-Mike Tyson The Fed’s initial decisions to delay its first rate hike had given temporary respite to Emerging Markets(EM) before it got punched by rate hike and in turn had also reduced the upward pressure on the dollar. However, further widening of the policy gap with other central banks, notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, had led to a renewed strengthening of the dollar in the wake of Donald Trump's surprise election win and rate hike by Fed. In turn leading to increased capital outflows from emerging economies. Paper aims to elucidate the impact of recent Fed rate hike on key currencies in turn influencing commodity prices. On-going tectonic shift in global growth as baton gets exchanged between developed & developing nations. Concluding with analysing the market structure of palm oil thereafter estimating the price forecasts for commodities & key currencies for next year.


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