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LIBOR or LIBOR-OIS spreads as a trading approach

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 Olufukeji "Ejimi" Adegbeye CWM, Financial Markets Trader & Brokerage Consultant

 Monday, November 14, 2016

Hi guys, How many traders use LIBOR or LIBOR-OIS spreads in their trading approach? Please, how do you think the ideas in the article below will affect the FX markets, in the short term and in the long term? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/u-s-treasury-to-market-time-to-break-your-libor-addiction


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5 comments on article "LIBOR or LIBOR-OIS spreads as a trading approach"

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 Alex Krishtop, Consultant at Edgesense Solutions. Mentor at Algorithmic Traders Association

 Tuesday, November 15, 2016



Well, a suggestion to replace one benchmark with another one. Depends only on how quickly the new one will be adopted as an "industry standard" and how soon there will be price manipulation related to this new benchmark. Sounds like Trump is going to make the life of price manipulators much easier though, so perhaps we don't have to wait for too long.


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 Olufukeji "Ejimi" Adegbeye CWM, Financial Markets Trader & Brokerage Consultant

 Thursday, November 17, 2016



Thanks Alex


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 Nick Firoozye, Managing Director at Nomura International

 Sunday, November 20, 2016



LIBOR-OIS = 6bp for start of swap history to 2006. They jumped out during the crisis (in fact before) and everyone started doing OIS discounting for a change. LIBOR-OIS is basically a crisis indicator, and unless you're trading it directly, may not prove that different to trading VIX or some other 'crisis' indicator.

Question: Why is this any better than VIX? Also, what tenor? 3M-EONIA swaps - Cash Euribor?

The UST would (sensibly) like investors to stop using LIBOR which, no matter what regulators do, is still a fictional index. When there is no 3m or 6m unsecured lending between banks, there is no definition for LIBOR. Meanwhile, it has to be quoted. FedFunds is a volume weighted index (for the 1400+) banks in Fedwire. EONIA is a volume weighted index for the 30+ banks (same as in EURIBOR panel) for O/N transactions. Both involve real transactions, unlike LIBOR or EURIBOR.


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 Syed Uzair Aqeel, Key Client Partners, Deutsche Bank

 Wednesday, November 23, 2016



Nick is bang-on. My additional 2c is that Libor/OIS is a lot more topical than VIX, which is the reference hedge for the investor universe. It's a great measure of stress in finding markets but less interesting, eg, for political risk. Kind of like looking at x-ccy basis swaps (which are basically 2-sided Libor-OIS), which was a great indicator/hedge in 2008 but will likely never react the same way again due to swap lines from central banks.


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 Olufukeji "Ejimi" Adegbeye CWM, Financial Markets Trader & Brokerage Consultant

 Friday, November 25, 2016



Thanks Alex Krishtop. Thanks a lot Nick Firoozye. Thank you also Syed Uzair Aqeel Your profile and work/trading experience is amazing sir. I am honored you took out time to respond sirs. I am currently looking at how to incorporate the TED spread and similar instruments as a gauge for predicting turning points.

I think assets traded on central exchanges can be a real pointer to navigating the OTC markets. I found one EURO denominated instrument on the MOEX that is surprisingly correlated to the EurUSD. It looks like it can be a leading indicator for swing trading the EURUSD.

I will further investigate the difference between instruments that have no real transactional value behind them and instruments that do.

Thanks again.

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