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Can "Natural Gas" Breach 2016 Lows?

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 Tuesday, September 20, 2016

As markets can move to most any level, the short answer is yes. Robust market analysis thankfully provides a more refined answer. In the event monthly Henry Hub Natural Gas prices fall below 2016 levels over the next 4 years, the following analysis places time-dependent, graphical lower limits to the natural gas market ledger. Specifically, natural gas is not likely to breach $1.21 on a monthly close basis over the 4-year future period depicted below. Spot monthly Natural Gas prices recently exited a well-formed, declining 10-year Stealth Channel (Reference chart). A newly birthed, multi-year market regime is now in its infancy. As stated in prior posts, a converging Stealth Channel, by definition, must be violated. As 10-year Stealth Support remains valid, it provides for a healthy term structure of lower limits of monthly market closing prices on a go-forward basis. There is no guarantee prices will again test these levels of market support, though 10-year Stealth Support may again come into play, especially in a minimally regulated fracking scenario. Brian K. Lee, MBA, PRM, CFA


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