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Trading Strategy Survival

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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Monday, July 11, 2016

http://alphapowertrading.com/index.php/papers/209-trading-strategy-survival


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2 comments on article "Trading Strategy Survival"

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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Wednesday, July 13, 2016



Some might have noticed on both charts in my previous post that the hit rate was at 100%. Of the thousands of executed trades, closed or still opened, none exhibited a loss after their respective 20-year testing period.

Isn't that nice? Trading using random-like functions, and still having zero losing trades after so many years.

The reason is simple. In that program, shares are sold only when showing a profit, and the program simply waits for it. It will even wait on its profit acceptance through a procedure called random delayed gratification.

You will have drawdowns, they are inevitable. As a matter of fact, almost every position saw some red. However, any time prices were making relatively new highs as compared to the highest purchases, not only would all closed positions show a profit, but all still opened ones would too. This is bound to happen repeatedly over such a long term trading interval as the stock price goes from one high level to the next.

...more


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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Wednesday, July 13, 2016



The objective of that program is to accumulate shares for the long term, and is therefore ready to hold for the duration. It is only that, after some time a position could be at a profit, and it is then that the program might decide to sell (using its random-like exit), thus the high hit rate. The generated profits are in turn funneled back into the system in order to buy even more shares. The system, in essence, is providing its own added capital, generating on its own a positive feedback loop.

So, there you have the reason for the high hit rate. Not only is it possible, it is the designed default mode of operation for the trading methodology itself. It is part of what was demonstrated in the DEVX8 trading strategy test. It was scalable at will, controllable from outside the program, designed to last, and it could manage to do this with a high hit rate, not to mention its positive alpha generation.

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TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
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