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Bull-Bear Market Probabilities

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 Philip Highton, Self Employed Quantitative Investor

 Tuesday, June 7, 2016

I recently started work looking at methodologies to objectively define bear-bull market probabilities rather than relying on simple cut-offs. The idea being that these probabilities could be used as a tool for portfolio management and deriving quantitative strategies to profit from prevailing/changing market conditions. I think this has resulted in an analytically robust approach that assigns bear/bull market probabilities on a daily basis. This approach gives a bear market probability for the present day of ~0.22 and an average probability from the peak in June 2015 to the present of just under 0.5. The reason for me posting this is to enquire whether anyone who has done something similar and if so, whether they would be willing to share probability data and provide some mutual peer assistance?


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