I agree. But now it's very hard for SP500 to go further 2.080 -2.130. Russell 2.000 and MSCI World are weak...

Bear Market???? What market - what Bear?

JPOZ

It's a trading range: 1.800 - 2.130 for S&P 500...

John, I probably should have named this blog post, "Are We Entering Into A Bear Market". Since it was my first share of my blog here on LinkedIn, I wanted it to be an attention getter. Anyway, if you read the post, it basically says that I believe that we will have another leg down (which could have started after I wrote this post), but will likely maintain the integrity of the support and resistance lines of the price wedge for the next 2-3 months. From there a breakout will occur, up or down. I took my best guess that it will be an upward breakout and that it will be fueled by the Fed not raising rates in June.

Into a trading range it' s better: to buy support, to sell resistence, to wait for a break out...

I won't we are in bear market!!!!

the technicals point to 'yes' and for the past six or eight months with my clients at least, it's been all about finding value and margin in sectors other than equities. Private Equity tech for example has been robust.

We have been in one since April 2015 - what we see is the 4th wave (upward correction wave) of a downward moving Elliot Wave Formation with the end coming in the 5th downward moving wave. Those of us that understand EW formations know the target value for the 5th wave is pretty low.

Yes, by definition, we are in a bear market, and bear in mind that although some bear markets can be very short, but the risk to the down side is higher than up.

Waiting ...waiting ...waiting. We're on the edge.

We'll see, the next 2-3 months should be quite interesting. As I stated in the article, we are due for a big breakout on a technical basis due to the wedge. It could go either way, and I think that it will be driven by the Fed's decision in June or some other high profile event at around that time.

Jennifer this Bear Market has lasted just under a year for the DOW and the 5th EW wave target is in June so we are in for more downward movement. One more thing - looking back into history we can see that 2008 the 2nd to last election year was a real disaster for the markets. I believe this election year will produce a similar result because 2007 had a situation going on in the market like the one we are experiencing this year. Then looking back further we see that all election years are devastating for the markets as money doesn't know how a new President will effect the markets or the economy.

You are an algorithm CTA, bull or bear shouldn't matter, right?

Your algorithm should be able to let you know where to buy low, and where to sell high, right?

Right now everybody is looking for another 2008 crash, to make a billion dollars shorting the market. They can dream on, not going to happen. As scary as the market looks, it won't crash. There's a hell to pay, but won't happen when everybody is waiting for it. Shorts will be squeezed, longs too. That being said, I agree automation is the way to go. The question is who really has the solution? Automation will not turn a bad program into a good one.......

You're right regarding the last point. Who has the solution? I guess that it depends what you are looking for. There are trend following systems that are short term (intraday and swing systems), intermediate term, and long term. Some even incorporate all of those. As for my firm, we only do short term intraday systems at the moment, but plan to release a short term swing trading system in the future. It's really all about perspective and technique. Longer term systems inherently will have larger ranges and fewer trend opportunities, but have a much higher degree of capacity for AUM. Shorter term systems have much smaller trading ranges and thus many more trend opportunities, but trade often and are vulnerable to the impact of slippage and have a limited capacity for AUM. Right now I don't have much in the way of AUM, so slippage isn't really an issue yet. Perhaps you should go to my site and check out my Global Diversified Trends Program, it is an intraday system that trades in 10 markets around the world within equity, metal, energy, and currency futures. In the future, I plan to release a 30+ instrument short term swing trading system, perhaps once capacity becomes an issue or earlier.

If you'd like to discuss things in more detail regarding my systems, feel free to send me a private message on here or call my firm at (727) 777-4333. You can also visit acumenalgo.com for more details.

Also please check out my other blog post here, Seven Important Traits Of A Strong Trend Following Algorithm, if you haven't done so already. It isn't extremely specific in describing our methodology, but it should give you a good idea of where we stand philosophically when it comes to the development of our algorithms.

Ah, one other thing that I forgot to add: longer term trend following systems will tend to have a larger drawdown than their shorter term trend following counterparts. That's because of the larger ranges of the longer term systems and the fact that shorter term systems tend to have a tighter control on risk. For example, intraday systems wouldn't hold over the weekend, and we all know that sometimes crazy stuff happens in the world over the weekend that can highly impact the market open in Asia on Sunday evening here in the US.

Hello Everybody... My Automatic Trading System says that we are in the best Bear Market. Also my Mind confirm that think, so you can easy create a short position in your portfolio and in the same time you can buy commodities like Silver and Gold. I have used my personal Trading System for 7 years with great results.

It depends which sector you mean. The S&P 500 consumer staples sector hit all time highs last week. S&P 500 tech is at levels not seen since the internet bubble. Check this out:

http://bullsheadtrading.com/chart-of-the-day/2016/3/20/vbrdj6lbl06n4k1x0xy3c11w2swjtx

The path of least resistance seems to be on the downside. From last August onwards, there have been multiple breaches of the longer term averages. Add the fundamental case of stretched valuations and falling profits and one can feel more confident that the next major leg is likely south. Agree that probably the best way to control risk and maximise reward is playing the game with a shorter term horizon mindset.

Mark Putrino the S&P 500 itself shows Bear Market as it is presently in the 5th EW wave of a down ward movement with a target value of 1,750.00 in July of 2016. I think if you look at the sectors they too will show you the same thing - the end of a temporary upward moving correction (4th EW wave) of a distinct Bear Market. Then when you add an election year to the mix - all bets are off!

Dr Elton Babameto I agree with your comment except the DOW has been in this downward moving EW formation since the All Time High (ATH) of May 15, 2015. August was the bottom of the 1st EW wave and the bottom was roughly 3,000 points from the ATH. The target value for the 5th EW wave of this Bearish move is right back in that 15,500 value range it hit August 24, 2015 and again January 21, 2016.

One chart says it all, weekly view on the S&P. The bear market has already started Q/E will come to the rescue once again