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Fed: This is what it sounds like when doves cry

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 Olivier Desbarres, Independent Strategist

 Wednesday, March 9, 2016

The Fed is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16 March meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. Domestic and global growth has slowed, US manufacturing is struggling, oil prices remain depressed, the dollar is still strong by historical standards and equities are still recovering. But the nuanced picture painted in Figure 1 could encourage the Fed next week to issue a statement which prepares the ground for a mid-year hike, by referring to the strength of the US labour market, resilient consumer demand and rising inflation. The possibility of a not-so-dovish Fed statement is seemingly not fully priced in, with the Fed funds market still only pricing 2-3bp of hikes next week and 28bp of hikes for the full-year. My core scenario remains for two 25bp hikes this year, which would help put a floor under the US dollar. The Fed has historically remained apolitical and shown a willingness to look through discrete global events. There is little to suggest this time will be different with the Fed likely to look through the UK EU referendum on 23 June and US elections in November. http://www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk/fed-sounds-like-doves-crying/


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