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If you’re interested in the intersection of CTA / trend following activity please read on....

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 Alex Williamson, Global Data and Business Insights Manager at Unilever

 Tuesday, February 9, 2016

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2709315


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4 comments on article "If you're interested in the intersection of CTA / trend following activity please read on...."

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 Johan Kretz, Senior Investment Manager at Deutsche Bank

 Wednesday, February 10, 2016



Dear Alex,

Thank you very much for an interesting paper. One thing struck me as the model seems to allocate more leverage to low vol assets. Anecdotally, when the vol of an particular asset class is low, it normally have a weak trend.

Hence, the trend signal could be quite weak for such an asset and therefore has a larger probability of being wrong. Could there not be a risk that the model overweight assets with low vol and thereby high risk for a future trend reversal?

Many trend following systems tend to capture falling markets well, as the trend signal is quite strong then due to the fact that a fall is normally more aggressive ( 1st and 2nd derivative) than a rise in the same market.

Have you contemplated using the change in volatility to increase/decrease allocation to an asset class? I have seen some evidence that the autocorrelation increase when vol is rising. That should actually mean increasing allocation to assets with rising vol, as the trend signal is stronger.


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 Alex Williamson, Global Data and Business Insights Manager at Unilever

 Wednesday, February 10, 2016



Hi Johan - very valid points, although some of them have logical explanations - let's connect via email and I will explain.


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 Christopher Kirk, PhD, Modeler - Analyst - Quant

 Saturday, February 13, 2016



This is a very useful paper that adds to the literature of a topic that is discussed infrequently.


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 Alex Williamson, Global Data and Business Insights Manager at Unilever

 Saturday, February 13, 2016



Thanks Chris! Glad you think so.

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