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Thoughts on using technical analysis for algorithmic trading?

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 James Koenig, Student at Weber State University

 Friday, January 29, 2016

According the white paper, "Head and Shoulders above the Rest? The Performance of Institutional Portfolio Managers Who Use Technical Analysis", the data shows that TA doesn't do much to add to the overall performance of the portfolio and instead adds to the volitility


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5 comments on article "Thoughts on using technical analysis for algorithmic trading?"

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 Maxime Bonelli, Quantitative Research Engineer and PhD Candidate in Applied Mathematics

 Monday, February 1, 2016



This academic paper published in Management Science may also interest you:

Neely, C. J., Rapach, D. E., Tu, J., & Zhou, G. (2014). Forecasting the equity risk premium: the role of technical indicators. Management Science, 60(7), 1772-1791.

http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1838

Regards.


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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Monday, February 1, 2016



@James, thanks, a well written paper. Note that the conclusion was slightly positive, in an unexpected way...


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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Tuesday, February 2, 2016



I'm surprised the content of this paper is not discussed more. A sample of 10,452 actively managed funds is more than sufficient to be representative, and to make a point.

The point being made here, over a 19-year test, is that technical analysis provided only a slight advantage over the funds not using it at all. And when you look at the numbers, slight is not an exaggeration!

The study also implies that most of the stuff presented here, most of the trading strategies might fall within the presented sample. And that is bad news to most of the threads in this forum.

In its conclusion, it did leave a door open:

And I agree to that too.

...more


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 Guy R. Fleury, Independent Computer Software Professional

 Tuesday, February 2, 2016



What interested me, in this well written paper, was more an omission. In figure 1 is provided a comparative 19-year average performance graph of funds using, and not using, technical analysis. In CAGR terms, this amounts to 3.02% for the technical analysis group compared to 2.77% compounded return for the fundamentalists.

I do understand why the omission was made. I would say for obvious reasons. A 10% CAGR, the market's secular trend, would have had a squiggly line finishing at 6.11 instead of 1.80.

Nonetheless, great work. Appreciated.


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 Joseph Lee, Marketing Researcher at Rugged Races LLC

 Friday, February 5, 2016



Technical analysis in some ways is just a way to assure people that they are managing risk. Trading is risky, whether you do manual or algorithmic. Algorithmic is all about the technical analysis, but really, it's the speed and built-in risk management functions of the algorithm that do all the work. The analysis (mostly regression analysis) is there to give it an initial prediction. Manual traders might have some regression analysis running on the side to help give them indicators, but really they're relying on their speed of getting out of risky moves and patience when staying in profitable trades. I can see how technical analysis just adds to volatility because some people might rely on it to make some risky moves. It's like trying to rely on secret intelligence. Sometimes bad intel just adds to the whole clutter of information.

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