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Are We Insane?

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 Nolan Parker, Nolan Parker is President at Parker Knight Capital Management LLC,

 Wednesday, July 15, 2015

The question everyone should be asking themselves, but even more specifically the Euro-Zone Leaders should be asking themselves is, “Are we Insane?”. I’m sure most people are aware of Albert Einstein’s infamous quote, “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. For the first time since the 2011 meltdown, the risk in the U.S. Stock markets are to the downside. However, around the world today stock markets rallied on optimism of a Greek deal with European leaders but, let’s remember that this “deal” is only a preliminary agreement rather than a finalized obligation. People know who Alexis Tsipras is, yet have neglected to remember who he works for: The Greek People, who by the way, declared not stated, “EXIT!” in a nearly 2/3 NO vote. Has it come to this? Another correction 10-20% looms and yet 1/4 through the storm the passengers on the ship have forgotten what they had so clearly seen coming all along, a Greek exit from the Euro-Zone. Let’s face it, even if Greece jumps on board with every single demand, and reform (which they won’t) they still will find themselves cutting government spending which is bad for the economy, and raising taxes which is also bad for the Greek economy. Yes, the banks will be solvent (for a time), and the country will be able to pay back the interest it owes from earlier loans with yes, more loans (from the people the owe the money to in the first place) which will accrue even more interest (they can’t pay back) which will eventually lead the Greek’s to one of two options (again): Complete default, or More Loans. So I ask again, “Are we insane?”.


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9 comments on article "Are We Insane?"

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 Sander Burggraaff, Independent SAS consultant

 Thursday, July 16, 2015



Maybe you should look a little deeper into the subject before writing a post. The Greek did not vote for an exit. They thought they could vote against the demands of the lenders but still remain part of the Euro. Problem is that many Greek are simply too emotional about the subject and it is impossible for them understand what the consequences are (which also applies to most other Europeans as well by the way.)


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 Gregg Houlden, Partner at Corinthia Capital Partners USA

 Saturday, July 18, 2015



Sander, I agree with your correction however, your point does reflect the unease most of us feel as to the Greek government. The actual wording on the ballet was beyond confusing. I actually think the whole exercise was disingenuous in the extreme. The hardship the Greek populace is enduring is absolutely needed and should form the basis of an exercise throughout the Eurozone. If not we as investors have to look at the strategic risk analysis as far more of a factor in any process.

Moreover, I for one, resent the left blaming the Banks. I blame craven politicians and citizens who do not take responsibility. As science based traders we look towards objective realities and statistical probabilities. Feelings and entitlement are both emotional and to be frank the methodology of the left, they delude the uneducated into voting for programs that make no financial sense.


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 Ron Cruz, Securities Market and Reference Data Professional

 Monday, July 20, 2015



Bankers have to assume more responsibility for the current state of the Greek affairs, and for the disastrous outcome of future agreements. You are probably familiar with the old adage, “It takes two to tango.” Greedy global investors and bankers have made bad investments and speculations, they also have led the stupid and maybe corrupt Greek government to buy hedging complex products that put them further in the hole. Of course all along bankers are profiting. This is a most dangerous mix of greed and stupidity. A fair outcome would be losses by both sides as only pain will guaranty a lesson will be learned. The people of Greece have already learned theirs.


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 Antony Smith, Entrepreneur l Business strategist l Business development l Investor I Mentorship

 Monday, July 20, 2015



Trojan horse - It's an impossible situation for the Greeks and Europe has an whole. Greece need to leave or be removed from the EU. Membership to any club is dependent on rules being followed - Greece is a black economy were corruption is rife!


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 Gregg Houlden, Partner at Corinthia Capital Partners USA

 Monday, July 20, 2015



Ron with all the respect in the world, in Financial Services, complex instruments are tools and choices. National Economies are no different nor can be hijacked by Politian's to buy votes or a population who considers it self entitled to receive but not contribute.

Getting back to Nolan's interesting and objective assessment. "Are we Insane", Keynesians and left leaning EU leaders believe in centralisation of powers and planning. This forum brings together the absolute opposite. VC/PE and Algorithmic Trading is the objective unemotional application of known risks, values an probability to deliver a growth vertical to our investors and clients.

Ron and Sander,

Emotion and compassion is not what this board is, in my opinion, about. Nolan in my opinion, raised a valid question. Is Greece, structurally, commercially, fiscally and politically/demographically capable of being a true member/partner with say Germany?

If we apply trading algorithmic factors to any investment in Greece and by association Portugal, Spain and Italy we find a huge risk which should be factored.

Ron, your comments suggest a more humanitarian conceptual view, a socialist or Keynesians socialital model or view. In my view you see Banker's as predatory. Bankers, and I am VC/PE so far more aggressive, are there to promote growth, invest in growth and create the opportunity to suceed. Centralism/Socialism delivers internationally uncompetitive solutions, dependency/entitlement and a lazy un-competitive workforce.

*Political Rant OVER - But everyone has to contribute to a societal model or it fails. Socialism fails through the assumption humans have no aspirations or ambition.


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 Cameron Wild, Portfolio Manager

 Tuesday, July 21, 2015



Please remind yourself that this is an automated trading group. What you're talking about is not real - it is just news flow. I stopped taking notice of news flow about 9 years ago when I saw that many (perhaps most) guys trading with $1bn+ books have no idea what the TV and newspapers are saying. I suggest you do the same. Then you might be long the market and making money instead of fighting the tape and calling other people "insane" when it's you who subjects yourself to brainwashing and propaganda.


http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli


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 Alex P. Thorn [Dragon], Chairman of the Board at Iastra Broadcasting Corp.

 Tuesday, July 21, 2015



hooray for Cameron Wild, you nailed it buddy


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 Barry Ziskin, Owner, Ziskin Asset Management Inc.; visionary entrepreneur and investor

 Tuesday, July 21, 2015



"Still Crazy After All These Years " (P. Simon)


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 Boris Anderer, Partner Booster Ventures

 Wednesday, July 22, 2015



Guys, if you discuss about Greece, you should differentiate between today’s symptoms and the roots of this crisis. I am German, so according to Greece I am the bad guy. Let’s look a bit more to the roots. Since decades (or centuries ?) Greece wasn’t able to build a functioning economy and more important a functioning taxation authority. It further seems that they didn’t really worry about it and they reject external knowledgeable institutions to assist building working authorities (up to now). 2001 Greece succeeded to get the EUR with the help of Goldman & Sachs, despite their economic numbers and debt levels were far away from any precondition getting the EUR. Now we are at the point were “insanity” really started: the European politicians in that time knew about all of that (including Germany) and even so decided to accept Greece as EUR partner (according to: we are so great, who cares about the shit coming tomorrow ?). Since then Greece is celebrating their “right to receive money”: from 2001 to 2014 the greek debt level grew by € 180 billion to € 330 billion. What happened with the money ? Obviously spent and distributed in a charity manner and not to build a working economy. The greek people got used to the new wealth and the incompetency of their different governments over time – like a cat is getting used to receive milk. Now listen to a cat that shall catch mice again instead of getting milk, which it received the time before. This is happening right now with Greece. Is it fair ? sorry wrong question: Is insolvency fair ? I leave it open. Point for me is more the feigned surprise of the EU partners (the guys who started to give milk to the cute cat) about potentially lost depts. They knew it and know it all the time …

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