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Think Dirty, Embrace Big Data, Be (Un)Disciplined: MIT Sloan Prof. Eric So & Finding Alpha in Corporate Events: http://www.wallstreethorizon.com/thinkdirty

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 Michael Raines, Sales Director at Wall Street Horizon

 Wednesday, June 17, 2015

In this great new video produced by MIT Sloan, professor Eric So uses Wall Street Horizon data to clearly demonstrate how firm-initiated revisions in earnings announcement dates can predict a firm's future earnings news and provide a signal for superior investment returns.


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3 comments on article "Think Dirty, Embrace Big Data, Be (Un)Disciplined: MIT Sloan Prof. Eric So & Finding Alpha in Corporate Events: http://www.wallstreethorizon.com/thinkdirty"

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 Larry Kase, Financial Analyst, Publisher QAInvestor.com

 Saturday, June 20, 2015



Big data is interesting but becoming annoying. There is a notable tendency to conflate big data with knowledge which is a dubious notion. The demonstration that firm-initiated revisions in earnings announcement dates can predict a firm's future earnings news and can be used to generate superior results. No system predicts anything in the capital markets. Next, what is the criteria determining a firm-initiated revision. Revisions are relatively rare and primarily due to death, illness, weather and other such disruptive events completely unrelatedly to the earnings data. In cases of delays due to accounting problems which commonly provokes an immediate run for the exits. However, such incidents are rarely accompanied by a new release date so predicting an outcome based upon such a revision is impossible. The time element is completely unknown so how can a position be assumed based upon such a timing revision. Hanger Orthopedic delayed results several times during the past year and is a few 10Q filings behind schedule. Managing a short position on this one has been far more difficult than anyone could imagine. Of course we continue to probe the universe for answers and pursue anything that may yield an edge.


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 Tom Zheng, Linux and Electronic trading engineer

 Monday, June 22, 2015



Clearinghouse


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 Michael Raines, Sales Director at Wall Street Horizon

 Tuesday, June 23, 2015



Hi, Larry, thank you for your comments. Prof. Eric So observes in his paper/this video how you might find alpha in corporate events. In part, Prof. So studied 5,000 companies and 8 years of corporate earnings announcement data. Regarding frequency of revisions, in 2014 alone, my firm tracked approximately 50,000 calendar revisions.

These revisions raise questions, especially if you look at the type of the revision. Was it a tentative or confirmed date and did it change to tentative or another confirmed date? These revisions cause market volatility.

Prof. So, in line with the video title, says investors have to look across several disciplines and data types when seeking alpha. In part, he concludes: “The central implication of these findings is that investors fail to fully unravel information embedded in the schedule of news releases,” (Pg. 26, para. 3, Time Will Tell, 2015). See the WSH web site for additional independent academic data. Finally, if you or others are interested, we readily provide sample data for back-testing of trading/risk strategies. Thanks, Larry, for your input!

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