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Higher interest rates = more growth

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 Michael Agne, Long/Short US Treasury Bond PM

 Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Is the FED after 7 years going to raise rates? Here is my point of view


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3 comments on article "Higher interest rates = more growth"

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 Jeff Little, SDE at Amazon.com

 Wednesday, March 4, 2015



As a start I will mention that the article fails to actually explain mechanisms for what is proposed.

I wanted to clear up a misconception, though. The fed sets rates within a window allowed by the bond market. The bond markets Mega-trend sets that window. To say otherwise is to say that fed will trumps the rules of supply and demand.

So, why has there been a mega-trend for the long bond since 1980? Simple. Rich people buy bonds. Poor (or less rich, if you prefer) people buy products that are financed with bonds. When poor people are able to buy less things and rich people are able to buy more bonds, the interest rate reacts to supply and demand in the only way it possibly can. Bond rates can adjust with respect to other investments and they can adjust with respect to bond rates in other countries, but on a world-wide basis, investments in general have had uniform up pressure on the price side and uniform down pressure on the return dollars side fueled by diminishing amounts of cash feeding into the corporations, real estate, and interest repayments that investments are intended to enable. It wont be time to short bonds until either the money in consumption hands increases or global liquidity hits a hiccup and the total money supply shrinks under global deleveraging, the former of which would provide a restoration of 1940-1960 world growth rates and the latter of which would trigger deflationary pain. At least that's the supply and demand perspective, anyway.


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 Stan Jonas, Independent Financial Services Professional

 Thursday, March 5, 2015



There is no difference between the FED Funds rate and "the bond market". Example a 5 year US Treasury trades "by arbitrage" a close to the 5 year FED Funds rate (OIS)... which as the FED will tell you is where they and the market anticipated FED FUNDS to be over the next 5 years. There is nothing else.


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 Michael Agne, Long/Short US Treasury Bond PM

 Thursday, March 5, 2015



Jeff I agree with your sentiment, however you are completely wrong when it comes to the federal funds rate, the FRB sets this rate and the market has nothing to do with it, and yes in terms of supply demand, I believe you are forgetting that the FED can print money out of thin air QE and basically buy every bond out there, which it has done to the tune of 40% US Treasuries, so in terms of supply/demand dynamics I am not sure how you feel the FRB cannot peg interest rates. Yes the FED has been trumping supply demand for 8 years now. Theoretically printing money to buy bonds and keeping interest rates at zero. Rates have moved lower since 1980 because credit has expanded to offset the growth in real wages, how else do you think asset prices are where they are? I don't agree with QE as you probably don't either, but don't think the FED cannot peg interest rates, if they wanted to they could cap the long end at 2.5% and buy unlimited amounts of bonds at that rate. They have done it before, so in a financial system by which a private entity controls the velocity of money, well by all definitions certainly in my mind defies natural laws of supply and demand, because they inherently have the ability to print, thus theoretically unlimited demand, but that means the US Treasury will have to be indebted that much more as well, for money and debt are the same.

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