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Has Oil Bottomed ? Our Answer to The $64 Billion Question

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 Mohamed El-Shawa, President & CEO, Shawa International Trading Company Limited

 Sunday, March 1, 2015

As our clients and inner circle associates already know, we, along with very few others in the world, correctly predicted and called the recent crude oil price crash since the summer of 2014. Since then, I have been getting a lot of questions on a daily basis on when or whether we have hit a price bottom. Well, I am finally seeing some signs of a possible bottom thus I thought to share this piece here with you today. Without getting too deep into fundamentals or technical details, the price action of the month of February 2015 was very interesting and it provides some real hope for a price recovery for two main reasons: 1- This was the first month since July 2014 in which the closing price of the month was HIGHER than the opening price AND 2- The February price range (volatility) has contracted especially relative to the previous month (January 2014). So, where to from here ? The answer is: From this point on, IF the oil price trades at $55 per barrel or higher BEFORE it goes below $43.50, then this would CONFIRM that January's low of $43.57 was indeed a "bottom" and we can expect prices to recover to close to $70 a barrel over the next few months. However, if the price breaks down below the $43.50 mark BEFORE hitting $55, we can then expect further decline to $35 or lower. The closing price of February 2015 was, by the way, $49.41 a barrel (which is the closing price of Friday February 27th 2015). This is , in a nutshell, what we should look for in terms of oil prices over the next few months or so (short to medium term). The longer term picture however is a whole different research as it involves some major long-term structural changes which have been taking place over the last 10 years or so in the global oil market and we shall come back to these in the future but for now this is exactly where we stand today. Please feel free to share your comments or questions. Thank you all and have a great month ahead !


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3 comments on article "Has Oil Bottomed ? Our Answer to The $64 Billion Question"

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 Mark W. Guthner, CFA, Author, Senior Quantitative Investment & Derivatives Strategist

 Thursday, March 5, 2015



So would it be fair to say that a trader should do nothing for the moment and buy if price breaks $55 on the upside and sell if it breaks $43.50 on the downside.

Also, does the record high oil inventories shape your thinking?


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 Mohamed El-Shawa, President & CEO, Shawa International Trading Company Limited

 Thursday, March 5, 2015



Thanks for the comment Mark. It all depends on the trading style. Some would trade price ranges while others - including myself- would only get involved on a breakout above or a breakdown below the range as you suggested. The record high inventories and supply & demand projections etc.. are fundamental factors which , although important, were not taken into consideration in my analysis above which was solely based on technicals / price action. Generally speaking, from experience, price action almost always leads fundamentals and not the other way round so, while the current fundamental / macro situation looks bleak, the oil price could still move higher after which we may see fundamentals catching up later on.


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 Vasily Nekrasov, Risk analyst and model developer at Total Energie Gas GmbH

 Sunday, March 8, 2015



From forward curve point of view the long-term fair price of WTI is about $70.


(see e.g. http://www.finanzen.net/rohstoffe/oelpreis)


Note that it was also the case before the oil prices crashed.



But it the short term the market is very speculative and volatile. That's why I (as retail investor) patiently wait for "almost sure" opportunities.


Probably the most important issue here is not the entry/exit price levels (all the same you will never guess them exactly) but a rational money management. Recently I split (a part of) my trading capital in three pieces. I invested the first piece in BRENT as it was about $50 and was ready to invest the next pieces at $40 and $25.


As the price gone to $60 (and stagnated there), I sold.


I will re-enter if BRENT falls below $50 again. If not, well, sometimes it is better to miss a profit than to make a loss.

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