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How it all began - a Bed-time story...:

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 Sharky Seeker, Owner, CEO at ForexGT - Algo-Trading with Science and Logic

 Saturday, February 7, 2015

How it all began - a Bed-time story...: Once upon a time I tried the Hurst indicator that I came acrros. It looked nice, but I couldn't find use to it in real Forex trading. I went the extra mile and read about the guy, Harold Edwin Hurst. It turns out that he was hydrology expert, studying the river Nile floods and overflows. Ok, I said to myself, now I understand why it doesn't work for me in Forex... HUGE mistake! A few years later I watched Bill Williams lecture, quite bored, until he started to mention "Natural flow", WATER, RIVER, and such. "...price will go where there is least resistance, like RIVER or WATER flow according to the river bed..." or something like that. Bells started ringing in my head... Suddenly I remembered what I read about Harold Edwin Hurst, who died years before (1978), and start digging. It turned out that "Fractal geometry" and "Fractal dimension" was the basis of Hurst hydrology research - combined with "Long time memory" of "Time series"... and I thought that Fractals are Bill Williams creation... Ahhhha, now I see the connection...and went to implement. Have a good night sleep...


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5 comments on article "How it all began - a Bed-time story...:"

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 Prince-Yildar Agbo, Quantitative Trading at SMB-Capital

 Sunday, February 8, 2015



ok so what happened?


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 Charles Amlinger, Owner at Asset Allocation Consulting

 Sunday, February 8, 2015



There is more to Harold Edwin Hurst (1880–1978) than it meets the eye. The problem with his rescaled range analysis is that it derives the Hurst exponent as a the result of the complete data set of the underlying data of the price generating process.

The trader however wants to know if the actual market behavior, or actual Hurst exponent of underlying price generating process, is either random or deterministic, and NOT what it has been in the past. Descriptive statistics in general have the problem of introducing so much time lag that they sacrifice the performance (and the precision) of immediate actionable trading signals.


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 Alex Krishtop, trader, researcher, consultant in forex and futures

 Thursday, February 26, 2015



Fractals have no greater connection with Bill Williams's setups than phenomena caused by non-human forces (floods, tide, etc.) do with markets that are essentially superpositions of human actions.


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 Sharky Seeker, Owner, CEO at ForexGT - Algo-Trading with Science and Logic

 Friday, February 27, 2015



@Alex:

It doesn't really matter "who" put them there.

Fractals are patterns - and the only question is: are they useful for real trading?

What we found out is that after some filtering (valid and non-valid fractals) and applying some probabilities - they are VERY useful.

Furthermore - the main issue of "lagging" can be eliminated and "true" and "valid" Fractals can be predicted with quite good accuracy.


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 Sharky Seeker, Owner, CEO at ForexGT - Algo-Trading with Science and Logic

 Friday, February 27, 2015



Look at GG53 posted charts on that subject - @penguintraders.com

The underlying idea is that price behave very much acoording to laws of physics and nature.

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