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Here is a short question for the financial quants.

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 Dr. Jacques Saint-Pierre, Adjunct Professor of Finance at Laval University & Board Advisor

 Thursday, January 22, 2015

What is the intrinsic value of IBM if you suppose that its return on capital will decrease by 1 % per year for the next five years (for this corporation it’s a big decrease) and that its capital will increase by 1 % per year (a big increase) for the next five years to sustain or increase its competitive advantage? Suppose steady state after five years. I give you the answer: 336$ while the current price is around 153$ a difference of 183$. Hopefully, significant deviations from intrinsic value and markets usually regress rapidly to share prices commensurate with economic fundamentals.


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7 comments on article "Here is a short question for the financial quants."

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 Lionel Girardin, Founder - President at ScriptedEdge

 Friday, January 23, 2015



Capital growth more than offsets relative revenue return slowdown when it comes to intrinsic value (a pretty elusive concept). What's your methodology?


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 Dr. Jacques Saint-Pierre, Adjunct Professor of Finance at Laval University & Board Advisor

 Friday, January 23, 2015



Three ways: (1 )Economic Value Added method, (2) Free Cash Flows method, (3) Progress in the Value Added method.


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 tom mcginnis, Economist

 Friday, January 23, 2015



"Holding time" dude. How long is it being held?


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 Nikolay Stoykov, Managing Member at Annapolis Fund

 Sunday, January 25, 2015



That reminds me of the old joke that copy and paste are responsible for more losses than anything else, lol..

On a more serious note, it is just a model and no model works perfectly in the financial markets. Given this is IBM, a well followed company, it is highly unlikely the information known to you is unknown to other market participants ( that could be true for smaller companies). So, what is left that they disagree with your projections for revenue/profits. Ultimately, this is not just a question of potential profit, this is a question of risk - risk for model being wrong and risk of price going further against you. Without those numbers, it is really difficult to say anything about how good of a position this is.


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 Lionel Girardin, Founder - President at ScriptedEdge

 Sunday, January 25, 2015



so did you run all three and average them out?

also are your assumptions realistic?


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 Corneliu Manescu, Senior Software Development Engineer at Microsoft

 Sunday, January 25, 2015



Ok, I have a similar question for you guys: what is the intrinsic value for RIG? Who is working now hard to depreciate its value and why?


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 moiz banani, Director at Aab&Mab Ltd

 Monday, January 26, 2015



Intrinsic value is not the same as value put by shareholders who buy and sell them.

Whilst I agree that intrinsic value may be $336, but if one shareholders is prepared to sell the shares at $155 and another is prepared to buy at that value then that is the real value at that time, everything else if fictitious, which means it may reach that price or it mat not.

But for once, on its current performance if IBM value does go to $336, then I shall short the stock hand over fist, and I make no apology for such a decision, because IBM is wasting its valuable on share buybacks, which is going to haunt it in years to come.

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