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Using VDIGX as a pre-selected stock universe

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 Anton Vrba, Partner and Director of iMarketSignals.com

 Thursday, December 11, 2014

Build on the expertise of others, select a fund or ETF and use its holding as a universe for stock ranking and trading system.


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6 comments on article "Using VDIGX as a pre-selected stock universe"

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 Richard Feit, Trading strategy and sytems developer

 Friday, December 12, 2014



How are you ranking? Relative strength over a time period?


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 William K. Wong, Ph.D., Algorithmic Trader, HFT, FX, Global Futures

 Friday, December 12, 2014



An interesting out-of-sample testing would be to test performance during 2008-2009. Be curious to see how it performed over longer time period as well as during stress environments.


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 Anton Vrba, Partner and Director of iMarketSignals.com

 Saturday, December 13, 2014



William, I have generated performance graphs, starting 2006, for this model here: http://imarketblogs.com/?page_id=8564


Please note this is a hypothetical performance as we do not know the what the VDIGX holdings were in 2006, and results may be tainted by survivorship bias. But what one can see is that the drawdown for the model during the financial crisis would have been a lot less than that of SPY, 35% vs. 55%. The reason for this is that we have solid large cap stocks which pay dividends and that we trade them periodically. Annual turnover is still a low 193% and the model provides 3-times the return of SPY for the period 2006 to 2014


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 Anton Vrba, Partner and Director of iMarketSignals.com

 Saturday, December 13, 2014



Richard, To find stocks which may be undervalued (highest rank) all stocks in the stock universe are ranked weekly according to the following parameters:


1) Valuation (measured as market capitalization, debt and cash relative to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, future cash flow and projected earnings),


2) Efficiency (measured as future cash flow relative to total assets),


3) Financial Strength (measured as free cash flow relative to total debt),


4) Short Interest (being the short interest ratio),


5) Trend (measured as the stock price relative to a moving average of the price),



We use the point-in-time database and the modelling capabilities of http://portfolio123.com


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 William K. Wong, Ph.D., Algorithmic Trader, HFT, FX, Global Futures

 Saturday, December 13, 2014



Thanks, Anton.

This might be attractive for mutual fund clients, for hedgefund clients the drawdown would not be palatable, in fact it would probably close down a fund.

This is the reason why people like CTA or HFT type of performance where the beta is close to zero, very low drawdown and recovery time.

Nevertheless, this is valuable research result. Thank you.


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 Anton Vrba, Partner and Director of iMarketSignals.com

 Sunday, December 14, 2014



William, needless to say the model should be combined with a market timer, such that one is in the model during up-market periods and in TLT during the down-market periods, then the performance is increased dramatically. A quick check showed that draw down is reduced to 13% and returns doubled, i.e outperforming SPY by more than 6-times, for the period 2006 to 2014.



The market-timer description can be found here: http://imarketblogs.com/?p=5234

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