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Hidden Bond Risk in Equity Portfolios

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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Thursday, September 4, 2014

When analyzing equity risk, most focus on the style factors: Size and Value/Growth. This is often a mistake. Exposure to bonds has mattered more than style for many stocks, particularly over the past two years:


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4 comments on article "Hidden Bond Risk in Equity Portfolios"

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 Jonathan N., IT Consultant Fin+ Ltd, www.fin-plus.co.uk

 Saturday, September 6, 2014



@Greg Hidden rates exposure or bond exposure? re raising money through bond issuance's either long or shorter term to cover debt.


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 Daniel Larsen, Independent Wealth Manager, Financial Advisor. We help you manage risk and simplify your financial decisions.

 Saturday, September 6, 2014



Great article, thanks for sharing. I would love to see a key showing color-coded dates of each of these return points, but sometimes it's good to reduce the noise.


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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Saturday, September 6, 2014



Jon,

This article deals with the risk/exposure embedded in equities that is economically equivalent to a bond position. One way to measure and express it is as a dollar exposure to the U.S. Bond Index (Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index). Or one could think of it as the corresponding sensitivity to rates.

This exposure is the statistically observable consequence of the impact of interest rates on the DCF value of a company. It results from the interplay of the durations of firms’ cash flows, assets, and liabilities. For some firms, this exposure is the second most important source of risk and return, after market beta:

- Suppose a trust (say an infrastructure operator) has cash flow profile that is similar to a long-duration bond and levers-up with short-term debt – this leads to increased long bond exposure.

- On the other hand, suppose a trust (say oil and gas producer) has cash flow profile that is similar to a short-duration bond and levers-up with long-term debt – this leads to increased short bond exposure.


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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Saturday, September 6, 2014



Daniel,

Thanks for the excellent suggestion. We have actually used color/shading to communicate the dates of observations in other types of charts, but have not considered doing so in a correlation scatterplot. Worth giving it a shot and seeing what the noise looks like...

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