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what p-value do you use in trading rules?

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 Muhammad A., Independent Day Trader at Equity Day-Trader

 Saturday, September 13, 2014

Trading is an odds game, we don't look for absolutes we look for higher than 50% chance of something occurring. If that was true, what's your alpha? or what p-value do you use? Do you stick to the classic 5%?


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5 comments on article "what p-value do you use in trading rules?"

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 Gregory Chernizer, Ph.D, Innovative Predictive Scientific FM Analytic Developer, Portfolio Model Trader, Master Class Leader; web site fm-ud.com

 Sunday, September 14, 2014



@Muhammad A. If you would direct your question above to me I may direct you to my web site

fm-ud.com

for an explanation regardless of desirable trading time interval


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 Muhammad A., Independent Day Trader at Equity Day-Trader

 Monday, September 15, 2014



Thanks for the comment Gregory, I went to the site you mentioned, but I only read about a finished product, a "black box". Did I look in the right place? Was there a certain tab that I needed to look under?


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 Zeyu Li, Global Markets, Trading at HSBC

 Tuesday, September 16, 2014



Trading is not only about winning probability, it is about positive expectation and to achieve large sample size for law of big number to come into play


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 Gregory Chernizer, Ph.D, Innovative Predictive Scientific FM Analytic Developer, Portfolio Model Trader, Master Class Leader; web site fm-ud.com

 Wednesday, September 17, 2014



@Muhammad A I am answering your question "what p-value do you use in trading rules?"

I use the only those volume excess expectation (VEE) in vicinity of any price for a desirable time horizon that is calculate by PVEE analytic (differential equation) for the no risk-free arbitrage subset at FMUD new causation economic space (NCES),I called it the Efficient Financial Market (EFM) in four dimensional Price-VEE-Time-Price Volatility space. Its life time is longer and more stable than the complimentary to EFM NCES space. I may name it as the most conservative part of NCES less substituted to changes. Its advance is clear due to the impossibility of any law conservation in Economics. Ref: fm-ud.com


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 Muhammad A., Independent Day Trader at Equity Day-Trader

 Friday, September 19, 2014



Realized there was a mistake in the title. It should read: what tolerance do you use when constructing trading rules, which is alpha not p-value. p-value as you might all know is dependent on the data. You want your p-value to be lower than your alpha no matter what alpha is.

@Gregory I will reread the material on your site, it seems there are many abbreviations which I am not familiar with.

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