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When does "The Machine" become too predictable that it becomes unprofitable?

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 JP Theissen Jr., Senior Sales and Leasing Consultant/ Certified LEAF Elecric Car

 Tuesday, September 30, 2014

We already know that HFT and Algo Trading is more prevalent than ever. Let's call this "The Machine". The lack of volatility is preventing normalized profits. The Machine needs oil. Volatility is the oil. There are too many machines running the same "Algo". Risk parameters and standard deviations need to be checked, Now would be a good time. Just your friendly "Mad Scientist" trader articulating his views;)


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3 comments on article "When does "The Machine" become too predictable that it becomes unprofitable?"

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 Garrick Bradley, Software Developer at Guggenheim Partners

 Wednesday, October 1, 2014



Based on the intelligence that is being and has been assembled to focus on the HFT solution, I would be surprised to discover that their algorithms are static, in that there routines don't account for the various types of market conditions. If this is the case then we can deduce that their routines were "curve fitted" for specific market conditions. And in turn, if these routines can detect these conditions, then in turn these routines should warn the users of when not to trade.

One of the biggest problems that a lot or traders (and trading organizations) have is this constant desire to make trades (and money). The market is a dynamic organism composed of many traders, investors, and automated programs. As an organism, some of the behaviors will be highly predictive, and some will not. And when those unpredictable behaviors (or non-favorable conditions) occur, it is best to walk away or find a Golf course, but definitely not trade it.

I remember in the late 80's when I first began in the business, there was one trader that only made one or two trades a day, and in the morning. He was one of the most consistent and profitable traders in the business. Unlike his counterparts, he was smart enough to keep is money for years. When I asked about him, I was told he shunned market action. Why? Isn't trading and making money fun? His reply, "yes, but I like to keep my winnings, and I can't do that if I trade for enjoyment. Then it is too much like gambling."

I hope the HFT guys are smart enough to go golfing on those days when the conditions aren't in your favor.


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 Nikolay Stoykov, Managing Member at Annapolis Fund

 Thursday, October 2, 2014



Glad to see you are giving free advice to people that probably know very well what they are doing. Many of those traders have large part of their own capital at stake, I assure you they dont forget to check standard deviations or risk models.


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 Alex Krishtop, trader, researcher, consultant in forex and futures

 Saturday, October 4, 2014



I wouldn't agree that what we observe (or at least used to observe from mid-2012 till mid-September 2014) is/was a lack of volatility, at least for certain asset classes. Rather, I'd say that volatility has shifted from a larger scope to a somewhat minor one. Therefore it has led to very interesting phenomena: significant intraday movements (mostly referred to as "unprecedented volatility by many journalists) along with small deviations on daily and higher scale.

As to a model of a compound "machine" running the same algo — well, this model of course is valid, the only question is its usability. The market itself is a superposition of actions of all its participants, the key to success is whether we're able to identify some of them clearly and exploit their weak spots. A model of the market as a solid entity can be used for some academic research for sure, but I highly doubt if it's anyhow useful for deriving profits.

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