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Oil Price Risk in Equities

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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Tuesday, November 18, 2014

There are surprising beneficiaries of oil price declines. Casinos and Cruiselines are top recipients of the consumer stimulus. In addition: REITs can be a better oil short than Airlines – less levered, but more consistent.


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4 comments on article "Oil Price Risk in Equities"

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 Clay Mahaffey, CFA, Owner, Micro Dynamic Portfolio

 Monday, November 24, 2014



nice work! May I suggest you consider whether impact is on costs, or revenue for each sector. Also, you should consider a time lag ie airlines is quick subject to hedging arrangements. Airlines are quite a commodity and how do you know some pass the lower costs through to consumers ie lower fares? Also, response is non-linear: little response for small changes, larger response doesn't appear unless a larger oil change exists. As to consumer costs, the additional cash from a oil price drop can go to savings or spending. How do you capture that?


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 Nilanjan Bhowmik, Market Data / HFT Expert

 Monday, November 24, 2014



Spending.

Duration of this low oil price is probably creating a expectation bubble! If this lasts longer it will be more painful.

But that being said, In a twisted way we might finally see some inflation when oil rises. When euro inflation under 1% with bunch of Northern European bunds yield going negative, Fed target rate at 2% and china planning stimulus, I worry.


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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Tuesday, November 25, 2014



Clay,

All excellent questions that are tricky to answer with bottom-up fundamental analysis. So we went for the top-down empirical approach of observing the answers:

Since U.S. large-cap equity market is (at least somewhat) efficient, the increase in DCF value of a sector due to oil price changes should be reflected in the share price. The share prices will thus incorporate the market’s estimate of the combined effect of the mechanisms you list: consumers’ marginal propensity to consume, hedging, etc.

Now, your question goes deeper to the structure of market efficiency and price response. It would indeed be fascinating to study the lagged sector responses to oil price changes. We have not done this work. I suspect one would find all sorts of interesting things...


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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Tuesday, November 25, 2014



Nilanjan,

We wanted to stay away from making commodity price predictions, in part given the complexity of the issues you raise. That’s why we framed this as a survey of risk, which cuts both ways. The largest beneficiaries of oil price declines will be the largest victims in the scenario you paint.

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